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辣招損害香港生產力和競爭力

 

湯文亮博士

紀惠集團行政總裁
2014年5月18日

      越南排華暴動，中國政府，台灣政府分別發表聲明譴責越南，同時表示盡力協助在越南設廠的廠商，大家唔知道又沒有發覺，香港政府沒有發出類比言論，雖然CY曾經說過要派飛機撤走在越南旅行的人，而旅遊協會停止未來十日的越南旅行團，政府亦發出旅遊警告，香港政府所做的事，僅此而已，點解唔見到有廠家求助，唔通沒有廠家在越南設廠，老實說，唔係冇，而是很少，規模亦不大，本來香港人做工廠的年代已經式微，現在政府更推出辣招，美其名是打擊樓價，但連香港人的信貸額也降低，沒有信貸額，香港人在國內什至其他地方所設的工廠規模越搞越細，什至有一些廠家無心戀戰，草草結業便算，但香港政府從來不會提及這些事，只會一天到睌想辦法打擊樓價，彷彿，樓價下跌，香港變成一個共貧社會，市民大家都變得和諧一些，似乎符合孔子所說，大家冇錢都唔緊要，最怕是有一些市民有錢，有一些市民沒有，不患寡，只患不均。

       我經常說，政府可以做一些工作令多些市民有機會置業，什至可以管制私人住宅的炒賣投機活動，但不能夠打擊樓宇的有關商業活動，政府打擊樓價，全面將信貸額降低，本來，有很多廠家都是以他們在香港的物業作抵押，增加他們在國內或其他地區所設工廠的信貸額，現在政府收緊按揭成數，使他們的工廠亦不能獲得足夠資金週轉，廠家在無可奈何的情況下唯有將工廠規模縮小，什至結業，更加不會擴充，所以，今次越南排華暴動，都唔見到有香港廠家求助，其實，這是一個嚴重警號，究竟是香港人失去了做廠的精神，抑或政府為了打擊樓市而收緊樓宇按揭信貸，而握殺了香港人做廠的生存空間，政府以打擊樓市為己任，不知不覺已經嚴重傷害到香港的經濟體系，最慘的就是CY政府仍然並未察覺，認為樓價不跌，辣招不撤，繼續打擊樓市，終有一日，香港的經濟體系崩潰，在國內香港工廠工作的香港人因工廠結業而要回流，加入領取綜援大軍，或者，CY會更加開心，更多人領取綜援表示更多人倚賴政府，直接令到政府更易管理香港，雖然這是我的猜測，但雖不中亦不遠矣。

        在過去，香港被稱為四小龍之一，而四小龍不是指金融經濟，而是指工廠的生產能力，香港政府在過去雖然沒有大力支助工業發展，但亦沒有阻撓，廠商以私人物業作抵押爭取商業貸款作為工廠營運資金，當時的政府認為這是銀行商業決定，如果工廠虧損，廠商的私人物業資不抵債，損失都只是銀行，與政府無關，但現在管制銀行的按揭貸款活動，工廠的資金來源被毀，又如何能夠生存，現在，香港早已不是四小龍，稍後，是小蟲就差不多。
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1. don't understand,,,,2014-05-18 10:14:22
what is the real "生產力和競爭力" when speculating on real estate ??..
2. to 1/f2014-05-18 10:54:37
就黎大家便秘都関3d事架啦!哈哈哈!
3. 同意2樓2014-05-18 12:12:22
疴屎不出賴茅坑
4. Alan Pepper2014-05-18 14:58:09
Hello doc. 

I don't think 3D has such an effect on Hong Kong manufacturing industry as it has only been exercised for 3 years, especially if you talk about factories in Vietnam. I have a few friends who are in manufacturing and there are many reasons they do not invest in factories outside China. Most is because their scale is not big enough to have a presence outside of China. 

However, the government is not entirely without fault. If you look at large Taiwan, Japanese, Korean, Singapore manufacturing companies, look at the government policies that each respective country has on protecting and promoting the manufacturing industry, compare to HK? Well, you are right, Hong Kong Government doesn't help the manufacturer in anyway. Manufacturers in Hong Kong has to use their assets (typically their property ) to obtain loan from the banks, to finance building a factory in China, buying raw materials, pay for workers, investing in equipment, and financing their customers with ridiculous terms. Every banking facility they have they are on their own, no help was given by the government at all. 

If you search semiconductor industry in Taiwan, you will find that the government did not help the industry, but it single handedly created the industry in Taiwan. The following is an excerpt on the article:

" Taiwan’s semiconductor industry took off in 1975 when government research institutes set up the first homegrown manufacturer—United Microelectronics Corp., which soon became the world’s second largest wafer foundry.

This plant also created a pipeline of technical talent and entrepreneurs who went on to build new companies. In 1981, state-owned research and development units helped establish Taiwan Mask Corp. and over the next couple of years, ERSO spun off a slew of companies, includingTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., which has grown into the world’s largest contract chip-maker today.

Interestingly, the Taiwanese government did not get involved in the manufacturing or in the running of these plants, but transferred the technology to private enterprises and limited its role to providing R&D."

Very similar policies were practiced in Korea and Singapore. 

Hong Kong manufacturing entrepreneurs are like an orphan child, while everyone around them have support from their parents they had to do it on their own. Support given by government has always been an afterthought, to spend petty cash to sooth immediate pressure, but  never a long term, committed investment like R&D. It doesn't understand that no company in HK can afford multi billion R&D. Even largest traded companies in HK like Li & Fung & Johnson Electric. 
5. 珍惜香港2014-05-18 18:09:22
【珍惜香港】TO：4/F Alan Pepper

閣下令我諗起之前嘅一篇舊文，都寫過呢個話題。

政府要支持一個行業，唔一定要用好多錢，只要就住天時地利，一個政策，己經可以 Make a difference。但喺時機一過，再花幾多錢都喺徒然。

半導體喺電子產業嘅龍頭，能夠有機會响呢度落地生根嘅話，唔單止喺香港，成個珠江三角洲嘅命運都會被改寫。可惜當年呢個矽港計劃，就响董曾嘅手上一下子斷送咗俾上海；而差嘅，就只喺一個政策嘅配合。時機過後，做乜都冇用；依家起咗成個科學園出嚟，洗咗咁多錢，又搞出咗啲乜？

矽港計劃嘅錯失，喺一個雙輸。响上海成立嘅中芯國際，後嚟發生咗侵權事件，令中國嘅半導體發展虛耗咗唔少資源同光陰；如果當日植根香港，唔知會唔會唔同咗？呢啲嘢，冇擔保嘅，不過我地當時嘅科技同知識產權基礎，的確喺比上海優勝。

其實，除咗政府之外，香港人自己都有責任。就睇演藝界，點解香港，唔喺吹日風，就喺吹韓風？點解唔喺响日本同韓國吹港風嘅？點解啲香港人，會一渦風走去學日文，學韓文？而唔喺啲日本人同韓國人，一渦風走去學廣東話嘅？香港演藝發展咗幾十年，歷史唔會短過人地；有人話，喺因為本地行業嘅質素差喎，可能喺嘅；不過，行業嘅質素，喺由競爭同需求帶動，本地都冇市場，又點樣帶動質素嘅提升，從而進軍海外？

好多 MAKE IN HONG KONG 嘅嘢，都只有外地人至識得欣賞。最近更體會到，原來我地香港人自己都睇唔起嘅本土嘢，反而得到內地人嘅認同。身為香港人，真喺有啲慚愧，我地嘅向心力，的確喺差過人地。

向心力，喺講對本土文化同產業嘅支持，唔喺指排外果啲消極嘢！
6. 肥婆四2014-05-18 19:36:41
咁就真係又関政府事，社會一定是有勁爭先有進步，七八十年代本港演藝事業十分旺盛，勁爭劇烈之故，麗的同無綫斗，嘉禾同邵氏爭，咁就大家都多投資多拍好戲好節目。經多年勁爭都分高下，勝者無對手咪少投資囉，少好戲拍人才咪走囉，觀眾無癮都找其他消遣啦，D政策仲係咁，有心加入勁爭嘅，政府唔批，真係吹佢唔漲，大眾都睇得到，咁有乜計，咪睥視你囉，疏離你囉，唔通重親你呀，社會怨氣日重，都唔係一朝一夕的事，係好多事合埋嘅。的政策唔改，香港只怕續比人爬頭。
7. 小陽2014-05-18 20:50:02
Hi Alan pepper, 

The SME business  can get the loan backed by 政府擔保. However I do agree that the govt need to do more . I know there are a few hk ppl own  factories in Vietnam . The lending bank will concern about the country risk  and the bank may reduce the credit limit due to the Vietnam riot.  I think hk govt can help those factories for term loans or  other financing facilities. 
8. 香港無奈2014-05-19 09:15:04
在香港彈丸之地，好一個骨骼驚奇，舉世矚目的武術思想家李小龍在這裡發迹，逝世。
李小龍迷期望的李小龍紀念館也搞了那麼多年。。。
起碼多一個香港本土化的旅遊點。。。香港也搞不好。。。

韓國對文化產業有野心，政府博名谷，一有劇爆出就立即批出電影攞景地作為景點。
我們就成鬼日找顧問公司研究，做完報告就關人。。。。失望！
9. 70's2014-05-19 10:42:29

湯博士說得很正確。現在港商在內地設廠的規模正在縮減或有加速結業的情況。大家可以說是人民幣升值而使港商沒有利潤空間，無心戀戰。但與此同時，國內有一班後起之秀，把工廠規模愈攪愈大，高端技術含量越來越高，這代表國內人看的只有今天和明天，而香港呢? 大家只是念記昨天、呆著今天、沒有明天。

 
10. Alan Pepper2014-05-19 17:16:17
To 7:

Yes, this is exactly what I mean, petty cash to sooth immediate pressure. The current SME loan was introduced back in 2007-8 in response to the Financial "Tsunami". And it is only an 90% guaranteed loan for a period of 5 years, not an investment in any particular industry, and 5 years? What a joke! 5 years is barely enough to get any feasible project started!

As described above, Taiwan has "government research institutes set up the first homegrown manufacturer—United Microelectronics Corp., which soon became the world’s second largest wafer foundry." Then let private sectors enjoy the R&D for a very low cost or even free. This is commitment.

Singapore has similar programs, although I am not entirely familiar with the terms, is that the government pays foreign companies who invest in Singapore all or part of the salary of fresh graduates from Singapore universities for the first 2 years. (I think this applies only to certain industries). This is commitment.

Korea sets up professional schools for their entertainment industry, a full time 3-4 year program! Not a short course from TVB (albeit quite professional for private company with limited resources)  Let's not even talk about Samsung and LG. This is commitment.

Look at Cyberport, it was a great initiative but failed execution and commitment. If the government was really committed to IT and Telecom back then, it would have set up technical training programs, provide long term R&D facilities and funds (at least 4-5 sessions of 3 year funds) , hire professionals internationally, etc. The government can then lease these R&D patents to HK businesses at a fair and attractive prices. This is commitment. 

Or the Arts and Cultural district in Western Kowloon (although as a business person I cannot agree to the concept in HK, a population of 7 million without too much cultural history.) 
11. Alan Pepper2014-05-19 17:35:39
To 5/F

Good article!
12. Alan Pepper2014-05-19 17:52:31
BTW, I think HK can still do Technology ah, because HK has enough universities and smart people (i believe inherently HK people are smart, but just don't have the initiative, or the support, or the enviroment for them to excel), tech is still extremely high value in the foreseeable future, it requires very little space, very little low end work force, and HK is already an extremely concentrated testing ground for many tech products for many international companies. (Especially Telecom, because the density of population makes telecom easy to scale and test).

I heard from the news few months back at least HK has leased land for data centers, although some may complain is too little space. But at least this is one small step.

Recycling is still an industry left to be discovered, (in retrospect, CW Tung was a visionary, born at the wrong time and executed poorly.) HK is the perfect place to create a Recycling research hub for Asia, because firstly there's a dire need to recycling program in HK, population is dense meaning extremely easy transport and collection.

(Disclaimer, I'm not in any of the above industries, but I believe HK has the perfect foundations for them.)
13. Alan Pepper2014-05-19 18:02:31
wow, train of thought, Recycling will also create a lot of low end jobs for the under educated. Although initially will be a losing money business, it is not the low end jobs we are after, but the potential consultation services offered to China and neighboring countries, much like MTR (who are under a bit of heat lately)
14. 自我陶醉2014-05-20 12:59:50

Hi Alan,

You're such a visionary! It's a shame, however, that our Govt doesn't work that way like others. They are so self-contented with the past achievements and their mentality is just to keep their hands clean by outsourcing virtually everything with minimal intervention. So any subsidy will end up being another cyberport project and also a bunch of people petitioning the transfer of benefits from Govt to biz everyday. That's why they won't have the motivation to do anything except fire-fighting.

The problem we currently have for our industries is the ever-rising investment costs on both land and labor. Much of our entrepreneurship has already been killed by those skyrocketing costs. No matter how good your suggestions may sound, it's not going to work here in HK unless we can fix our Govt's mentality and have a stable price tag for those big ticket items.  

Imagine you hold a property to start your business. After a year or two, you will notice that you're already making a handsome profit on the piece of land you hold wihout doing anything on it and without going through the whole painful and risky startup. Not to mention the labor costs and other expenses that are chasing hard at your back everyday. So, what's the point to take the risk to start a business.  

The situation will even be worse if you rent a place to start the business. Eventually, you will realize your rent will shoot to the roof before you start making any profit. What if you're persistent enough to wait for the date of breakeven? The cruel reality is that the more profit you make, the more rent your landlord will price in to your rental bill until it can't afford and collapses one day. This is what kills local SMEs now. And that's why everyone here is so conditioned to be short sighted. 
15. 小陽2014-05-20 13:30:59

To self drunken bro ,

Good to see u here . To be frank, there are no factory in HONG KONG now .  High property price help those SME instead of killing them . They use their own properties as collateral and get the term loan and lending facilities from banks. IF  as you said , the govt should kill the property and let the price fall to 30% ,. I am 99% certain that those SME will suffer LOAN CALLING .

As a globish and IT fans , lot of shoppers esp OLs get used to Online shopping . The location of shops and factories are not the problem.

The main problem is R&D and MONEY  instead of location .

I Agreed on what ALAN said. Brain , creativity , technology , money  are vital for business development . The govt should give lot of support on them .
16. 自我陶醉2014-05-20 14:01:08
小陽

無謂為咗拗而拗， 咁樣冇咩意思， 只會變成人身攻擊。 我唔明點解你覺得industry 就一定係你腦裡面嘅 labor intensive factories?  IT itself is an industry. 世界上仲有好多高新科技嘅 industry。 而我講嘅， 係stable price tag, 唔係你所講嘅升三成跌三成， 呢啲都係唔健康。 將眼介放開啲， 你睇嘢嘅 perspective 都會好唔同。
17. 小陽2014-05-20 14:11:38

Hi Self drunken bro ,

You said it before :

The problem we currently have for our industries is the ever-rising investment costs on both land and labor.

Now , i am telling you that Land is not a problem , coz business environment is changing due to advanced technology  and those SME need STABLE property price to  get loans  for business operation.

18. 自我陶醉2014-05-20 14:20:57
小陽， so we're on the same page then.
19. middle middle class2014-05-20 15:51:07

I have been working in the manufacturing sector for more than 20 years, mainly in China but also some chances in Thailand as well as Vietnam.  I have compared the management and team spirit among factories owned by mainland Chinese, Taiwan Chinese and Hong Kong Chinese.  For those factories managed and owned by HK Chinese are less disciplined but rather friendly.  The overall relation between the employer and employees are much smooth than that under Taiwan Chinese management.

 
20. 自我陶醉2014-05-20 16:57:52
To : middle middle class

I totally agree to what you have observed. From what I've seen:

Local Hk Chinese ~ runs more like friends. 
Mainland Chinese ~ runs more like parents and kids.
Taiwan ~ runs like military. Look at how horrible Foxconn was.
Local Thai ~ more like family (brothers and sisters). I saw them even wear slippers in the office too.
Vietnam ~ not too sure. Like Mainland Chinese maybe. 
21. 小陽2014-05-20 17:52:41
《經濟通通訊社２０日專訊》地產建設商會連同戴德梁行、高力國際等測量師行及商界團體
發出聲明，促請政府豁免向非住宅物業徵收雙倍印花稅（ＤＳＤ）。
　　聲明指出，向非住宅物業徵收ＤＳＤ令屬正常商業活動的非住宅物業交投受牽連。現時商戶
正面對嚴峻的經營環境，若繼續徵收ＤＳＤ將會雪上加霜，同時令中小企的經營受牽連，交投大
降令企業融資能力大減，拖慢經濟活動及拖累政府政策。
　　因此，聲明促請政府修訂印花稅條例草案，豁免非住宅物業雙倍印花稅。（ａｈ）
22. 自我陶醉2014-05-20 18:16:38
21/F 小陽， 謝謝分享!  如果成功， 這無論對打算出售或購入商業物業的企業都會是好消息。無須影響商業活動的正常發展。
23. 小陽2014-05-20 19:27:08
I am doing my best to help the hk economy now . Rush to sogo now !!!!
24. 笑爆咀2014-05-20 21:09:01
回23：

對！說出事實幫香港經濟。